XTB Analyst Lifts 2026 Profit View 50% After Three Quarterly Forecast Misses
Noble Securities analyst Mateusz Chrzanowski expects XTB to earn about PLN 403 million ($106 million) in the second quarter and PLN 1.5 billion ($394.5 million) in 2026. The annual estimate is 50% above Noble’s PLN 1 billion ($263 million) projection published in January.
In an interview with Polish newspaper Parkiet, Chrzanowski warned that XTB’s share price already discounts “many positive scenarios.” The higher annual estimate follows three quarterly profit forecasts from the analyst that exceeded the figures later reported by the Warsaw-listed broker.
Three Profit Forecasts Came In Above Results
Noble expected XTB to earn PLN 190 million ($50 million) in the third quarter of 2025. XTB reported PLN 53.2 million ($14 million) after low profitability per lot and client gains on market-making trades reduced its revenue.
FinanceMagnates.com reported at the time that the result was also below the PLN 154 million ($40.5 million) market consensus. Chrzanowski’s estimate was 257% above the official number.
His next two estimates were closer, but remained above the reported results. Noble forecast PLN 205 million ($53.9 million) for the fourth quarter, compared with XTB’s preliminary PLN 180.5 million ($47.5 million). For the first quarter of 2026, Chrzanowski expected PLN 650 million ($170.9 million) and XTB reported PLN 535 million ($140.7 million).
| Reporting Period | Chrzanowski/Noble Forecast | Official XTB Result | Forecast Above Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | PLN 190m ($50m) | PLN 53.2m ($14m) | 257.0% |
| Q4 2025 | PLN 205m ($53.9m) | PLN 180.5m ($47.5m) | 13.6% |
| Q1 2026 | PLN 650m ($170.9m) | PLN 535.0m ($140.7m) | 21.5% |
| Q2 2026 | PLN 403m ($106m) | Pending | N/A |
The Q1 call correctly anticipated a record quarter, but overstated the result by almost PLN 115 million ($30.2 million). XTB’s preliminary figures reported by Finance Magnates showed operating income of PLN 1.09 billion ($286.7 million) and 370,041 new clients.
Client Estimates Have Been More Accurate
Chrzanowski’s operating forecasts have been closer to XTB’s reported figures. Before the Q3 2025 release, he estimated that the company had acquired about 200,000 new clients. XTB subsequently reported almost 222,000, an 11% difference.
Noble also projected about 865,000 new clients for the full year. XTB’s official count was 864,286. The estimate was published close to the year-end results, which limits its value as a long-range forecast, but it showed that the firm’s acquisition run rate was easier to estimate than quarterly earnings.
At XTB, client growth does not translate into profit at a stable rate. Profitability per CFD lot moved from PLN 152 ($40) in Q3 2025 to PLN 208 ($54.70) in Q4 and PLN 439 ($115.50) in Q1 2026, according to company filings.
In Q3, XTB said relatively predictable market trends favored its clients and reduced its market-making result. A larger client base and higher trading volume did not offset the change in unit profitability.
Cautious Language Sits Alongside Higher Numbers
Chrzanowski’s latest PLN 1.5 billion ($394.5 million) annual estimate compares with the PLN 1 billion ($263 million) Noble forecast ahead of XTB’s 2025 results. The revision follows the record Q1 result and elevated volatility across commodities and equity indices in the second quarter.
CMC Markets raised its annual net operating income forecast to at least GBP 550 million in July. Chrzanowski cited the UK-listed company as one reason sentiment toward listed brokers had improved.
Mateusz Chrzanowski from Noble Securities
“Two consecutive quarters with such high volatility are an anomaly,” Chrzanowski said. He added that “recurring net profit is lower than what we will see in Q2.”
The annual forecast assumes a slowdown after the first half. Adding the PLN 403 million ($106 million) Q2 estimate to XTB’s PLN 535 million ($140.7 million) Q1 result produces implied first-half profit of about PLN 938 million ($246.7 million). Reaching PLN 1.5 billion ($394.5 million) would then require about PLN 562 million ($147.8 million) across the final two quarters, or an average of PLN 281 million ($73.9 million) per quarter.
His client forecast remains above XTB’s stated target. Chrzanowski expects between 320,000 and 330,000 new clients in Q2, compared with management’s 2026 objective of 250,000 to 290,000 per quarter. XTB added 370,041 in Q1 as it increased marketing spending and directed more of its budget toward Germany.
FM Intelligence Estimates Point to Lower Trading Activity
A separate FM Intelligence dataset estimates that XTB had 851,000 active accounts in Q2 2026, down 1% from the previous quarter. Estimated monthly trading volume fell 25.7%, reducing volume per active account by 23.9%.
The dataset measures account activity and volume, not XTB’s revenue or the profitability of client trades. It therefore cannot confirm or contradict the PLN 403 million ($106 million) quarterly estimate.
Noble Securities analyst Mateusz Chrzanowski expects XTB to earn about PLN 403 million ($106 million) in the second quarter and PLN 1.5 billion ($394.5 million) in 2026. The annual estimate is 50% above Noble’s PLN 1 billion ($263 million) projection published in January.
In an interview with Polish newspaper Parkiet, Chrzanowski warned that XTB’s share price already discounts “many positive scenarios.” The higher annual estimate follows three quarterly profit forecasts from the analyst that exceeded the figures later reported by the Warsaw-listed broker.
Three Profit Forecasts Came In Above Results
Noble expected XTB to earn PLN 190 million ($50 million) in the third quarter of 2025. XTB reported PLN 53.2 million ($14 million) after low profitability per lot and client gains on market-making trades reduced its revenue.
FinanceMagnates.com reported at the time that the result was also below the PLN 154 million ($40.5 million) market consensus. Chrzanowski’s estimate was 257% above the official number.
His next two estimates were closer, but remained above the reported results. Noble forecast PLN 205 million ($53.9 million) for the fourth quarter, compared with XTB’s preliminary PLN 180.5 million ($47.5 million). For the first quarter of 2026, Chrzanowski expected PLN 650 million ($170.9 million) and XTB reported PLN 535 million ($140.7 million).
| Reporting Period | Chrzanowski/Noble Forecast | Official XTB Result | Forecast Above Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | PLN 190m ($50m) | PLN 53.2m ($14m) | 257.0% |
| Q4 2025 | PLN 205m ($53.9m) | PLN 180.5m ($47.5m) | 13.6% |
| Q1 2026 | PLN 650m ($170.9m) | PLN 535.0m ($140.7m) | 21.5% |
| Q2 2026 | PLN 403m ($106m) | Pending | N/A |
The Q1 call correctly anticipated a record quarter, but overstated the result by almost PLN 115 million ($30.2 million). XTB’s preliminary figures reported by Finance Magnates showed operating income of PLN 1.09 billion ($286.7 million) and 370,041 new clients.
Client Estimates Have Been More Accurate
Chrzanowski’s operating forecasts have been closer to XTB’s reported figures. Before the Q3 2025 release, he estimated that the company had acquired about 200,000 new clients. XTB subsequently reported almost 222,000, an 11% difference.
Noble also projected about 865,000 new clients for the full year. XTB’s official count was 864,286. The estimate was published close to the year-end results, which limits its value as a long-range forecast, but it showed that the firm’s acquisition run rate was easier to estimate than quarterly earnings.
At XTB, client growth does not translate into profit at a stable rate. Profitability per CFD lot moved from PLN 152 ($40) in Q3 2025 to PLN 208 ($54.70) in Q4 and PLN 439 ($115.50) in Q1 2026, according to company filings.
In Q3, XTB said relatively predictable market trends favored its clients and reduced its market-making result. A larger client base and higher trading volume did not offset the change in unit profitability.
Cautious Language Sits Alongside Higher Numbers
Chrzanowski’s latest PLN 1.5 billion ($394.5 million) annual estimate compares with the PLN 1 billion ($263 million) Noble forecast ahead of XTB’s 2025 results. The revision follows the record Q1 result and elevated volatility across commodities and equity indices in the second quarter.
CMC Markets raised its annual net operating income forecast to at least GBP 550 million in July. Chrzanowski cited the UK-listed company as one reason sentiment toward listed brokers had improved.
Mateusz Chrzanowski from Noble Securities
“Two consecutive quarters with such high volatility are an anomaly,” Chrzanowski said. He added that “recurring net profit is lower than what we will see in Q2.”
The annual forecast assumes a slowdown after the first half. Adding the PLN 403 million ($106 million) Q2 estimate to XTB’s PLN 535 million ($140.7 million) Q1 result produces implied first-half profit of about PLN 938 million ($246.7 million). Reaching PLN 1.5 billion ($394.5 million) would then require about PLN 562 million ($147.8 million) across the final two quarters, or an average of PLN 281 million ($73.9 million) per quarter.
His client forecast remains above XTB’s stated target. Chrzanowski expects between 320,000 and 330,000 new clients in Q2, compared with management’s 2026 objective of 250,000 to 290,000 per quarter. XTB added 370,041 in Q1 as it increased marketing spending and directed more of its budget toward Germany.
FM Intelligence Estimates Point to Lower Trading Activity
A separate FM Intelligence dataset estimates that XTB had 851,000 active accounts in Q2 2026, down 1% from the previous quarter. Estimated monthly trading volume fell 25.7%, reducing volume per active account by 23.9%.
The dataset measures account activity and volume, not XTB’s revenue or the profitability of client trades. It therefore cannot confirm or contradict the PLN 403 million ($106 million) quarterly estimate.
