Trump tariffs rattle Canadian investor confidence as trade deadline looms
Low trust in deal durability
Even a deal, if struck, may not provide the relief markets are hoping for. The ARI data shows that only 13 per cent of Canadians trust the Trump administration to stick to the terms of any agreement reached by August 19. Three-quarters (75 per cent) say they do not. This distrust is not new — it traces back to the original CUSMA negotiations — but it is now a near-consensus position among non-Conservative voters.
The PIIE analysis adds a further dimension: given that the administration has already shifted its legal rationale for tariffs three times in 18 months, the durability of any negotiated agreement is genuinely uncertain regardless of what is signed. Advisors building trade-war scenarios into client financial plans should weigh the asymmetric risk — limited upside from a deal without durable enforcement, meaningful downside if the August 19 deadline passes without one.
Consumer behaviour is shifting
Beyond the political risk, the ARI data surfaces a consumer trend with direct implications for Canadian retail, consumer goods, and food sector equities. Canadians are actively changing their purchasing behaviour, and the evidence suggests this shift is becoming entrenched.
Retail tracking data from NielsenIQ, cited in the ARI report, found that sales of U.S.-made food products fell approximately seven per cent in the first part of 2025, while Canadian-made alternatives gained market share despite carrying higher average prices. In the alcohol category, sales of American spirits fell by roughly two-thirds nationally after provinces removed them from store shelves — including an 80 per cent decline in Ontario alone.
The ARI polling confirms this shift is consumer-driven, not just policy-driven. Among Canadians who buy groceries, 40 per cent say they are actively checking product origins on most purchases. When consumers identify a U.S.-origin product, a majority say they put it back and seek a Canadian or non-American alternative.
