TD Cowen Reduces Nakamoto Price Target Amid Revised Bitcoin (BTC) Market Outlook
TD Cowen has significantly revised downward its price objective for Nakamoto Inc., the bitcoin-focused treasury firm associated with David Bailey, in response to an updated assessment of the cryptocurrency’s trajectory. Analysts at the firm reduced the split-adjusted target from the equivalent of $40 to $17, a decrease of 58 percent, while continuing to assign a Buy recommendation to the Nasdaq-listed shares.
The adjustment reflects pressure stemming from bitcoin’s recent weakness on Nakamoto’s leveraged balance sheet.
After a 1-for-40 reverse stock split completed in May, the prior $1 target translated to $40 on a post-split basis.
The newly issued $17 objective still points to substantial potential appreciation of nearly 275 percent relative to the stock’s recent trading level near $4.65.In its revised scenario,
TD Cowen anticipates bitcoin recovering to approximately $100,000 by the close of 2026.
That projection sits roughly 25 percent below the asset’s all-time high of $126,000 reached in October of the previous year.
The firm further expects the company to halt additional bitcoin acquisitions until at least 2027.
Analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete have now emphasized that bitcoin holdings remain the central source of value for Nakamoto.
They estimated projected year-end bitcoin assets at around $521 million.
However, outstanding debt and preferred securities diminish the residual value attributable to ordinary shareholders, rendering the equity particularly responsive to swings in bitcoin’s market price.
At present, Nakamoto maintains a position of 4,467 bitcoin, valued near $290 million.
This places the firm as the 22nd-largest corporate holder of the cryptocurrency among publicly traded entities, according to data from Bitcoin Treasuries.
The research note expressed a constructive view of recent balance-sheet initiatives.
Nakamoto has repaid roughly $45 million in obligations, refinanced $105 million of principal with an extended maturity into June 2027, reduced its cost of borrowing, and approved a share repurchase authorization of as much as $25 million.
In addition, the company has concluded operations at its former healthcare clinics and is concentrating resources on bitcoin-related media, asset management, and advisory activities.
Shares of Nakamoto have declined more than 71 percent year-to-date, outpacing bitcoin’s approximate 26 percent retreat over the same interval.
On the day of the research update, the stock fell more than 4.5 percent. The revision underscores the heightened sensitivity of leveraged bitcoin treasury vehicles to cryptocurrency price movements.
While TD Cowen continues to see meaningful upside if bitcoin stabilizes and advances toward its updated year-end forecast, the reduced target illustrates how capital structure considerations can amplify valuation adjustments when digital asset markets soften.
Nakamoto’s strategic shift away from legacy operations and toward pure-play bitcoin exposure positions it as a specialized vehicle within the emerging category of public bitcoin treasury companies, yet also ties its equity performance more tightly to the underlying asset’s path.
Investors monitoring the sector will likely watch both bitcoin’s recovery trajectory and the company’s ability to manage its obligations while pausing accumulation. The maintained Buy rating signals that TD Cowen still regards the current valuation as attractive relative to its revised assumptions, provided bitcoin regains momentum in the coming months.
