Small business data points to a rougher road ahead for mortgage market
Investment weakness and what it means for brokers
The most sobering finding in the Q2 2026 Main Street Quarterly concerns private investment. After contracting in Q1 2026, investment is forecast to fall a further 6.3% in Q2 and 4.7% in Q3.
Gaudreault said uncertainty is forcing small business owners to scale back or defer spending on equipment, hiring, and expansion, the kind of caution that filters through to job creation and, ultimately, mortgage qualification capacity for clients.
Those pressures are documented across the report. Capital equipment and technology costs have climbed sharply since the pandemic, with 38% of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) reporting challenges related to these costs in Q2 2026, on an upward trend.
In capital-intensive sectors, the share is far higher, transportation and utilities businesses reported this burden at 60%, according to the CFIB.
A weaker Canadian dollar has compounded the problem: CFIB estimates that a one-cent decline in the loonie increases annualised import costs for industrial machinery and electronic equipment by approximately $2.7 billion.
