September rate hike odds surge as oil tops $100 a barrel
At June’s FOMC meeting, nine of the 18 officials who submitted projections indicated the federal funds rate should finish 2026 above its current range, with the median year-end estimate rising to 3.8% from 3.4% in March. Warsh declined to submit an individual forecast.
September now the meeting mortgage professionals must watch
Mortgage rates have moved to reflect the repricing. The 30-year fixed rate currently sits at 6.58%, according to Freddie Mac, its highest level in nearly 12 months.
Melissa Cohn, Regional Vice President of William Raveis Mortgage and a 44-year industry veteran, told Mortgage Professional America the outlook for the July meeting is straightforward, and the path beyond it increasingly is not.
“Because oil is back at $100 per barrel, and bond yields are flying higher, inflation is rearing its ugly head,” Cohn said.
“At this point, I would say that the Fed would state that their next move would be more likely to be a rate hike than a rate cut.”
