Private investment in Canada set to drop 6.3% despite GDP rebound
The CUSMA uncertainty is adding another layer of caution. An early July survey found roughly 35 percent of Canadian SMEs had not yet been able to gauge what the US decision on CUSMA would mean for their operations.
A clear majority of small firms, 64 percent, want Ottawa to hold out for better terms rather than accept a quick deal. A BDO Canada analysis of CUSMA’s impact on cross-border business found that tariff volatility is already influencing corporate decision-making across automotive, manufacturing, and energy sectors.
Interprovincial trade barriers are also weighing on growth. More SMEs are shifting away from US markets. Breaking into domestic markets has proven difficult, with interprovincial barriers slowing firms that want to reduce their US exposure.
Canada’s private sector job vacancy rate was unchanged at 2.8 percent in Q2 2026, with the CFIB estimating roughly 393,000 positions left unfilled. That stability offers little comfort when Canadian business investment has remained below 2015 levels despite repeated federal pledges to reverse the trend.
SME sentiment — selected indicators, early July 2026
CUSMA uncertainty
Want Ottawa to hold out for a stronger CUSMA deal
Too early to assess impact of US decision not to renew CUSMA
Cost pressures
Flagging capital equipment and technology costs as a challenge
Source: CFIB Main Street Quarterly, July 16, 2026 (developed with AppEco). Survey of Canadian SMEs, early July 2026.
Business exits outpace entries for third consecutive quarter
New data in the Main Street Quarterly report shows business closures have exceeded new openings in each of the past three quarters. It is the first sustained run of net business losses the CFIB has recorded since the pandemic, the organisation says, after Statistics Canada revised its underlying data.
