New home sales edge up, but the year-over-year gap widens
Prices pull back as inventory holds steady
The median sales price of new homes sold in June fell to $398,300. That’s down 3.3% from May’s $412,000 and 2.7% below the June 2025 figure of $409,200.
The average sales price retreated, dropping 9.5% month over month to $475,400 from $525,200 in May.
Brokers advising clients on new construction should note that these price movements may reflect a shift in the mix of homes transacted, a common seasonal dynamic, rather than a broad-based correction in builder pricing.
Inventory remained virtually unchanged. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new homes for sale at the end of June stood at 485,000, down fractionally from May’s 486,000, representing 9.3 months of supply at the current sales rate. That reading sits well above the 4-to-6-month range typically associated with a balanced market.
Sales pace (SAAR)
628,000
▲ 1.6% vs May 2026
▼ 5.6% vs Jun 2025
Median sale price
$398,300
▼ 3.3% vs May 2026
▼ 2.7% vs Jun 2025
Average sale price
$475,400
▼ 9.5% vs May 2026
▼ 6.5% vs Jun 2025
Months’ supply
9.3 mo
▼ from 9.4 in May 2026
▲ 3.3% vs Jun 2025
| Jun 2025 | May 2026 | Jun 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales pace (SAAR) | 665,000 base | 618,000 | 628,000 ▲ 1.6% |
| Homes for sale | 501,000 | 486,000 | 485,000 |
| Months’ supply | 9.0 | 9.4 | 9.3 |
| Median sale price | $409,200 | $412,000 | $398,300 ▼ 3.3% |
| Average sale price | $508,700 | $525,200 | $475,400 ▼ 9.5% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development, Monthly New Residential Sales, July 24, 2026. SAAR = seasonally adjusted annual rate. May 2026 figure revised from initial estimate of 580,000. All figures subject to revision.
Rate outlook and what it means for brokers on the ground
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will hold in the 6.1%–6.3% range through the remainder of 2026, a trajectory that continues to compress affordability for entry-level buyers.
