June jobs data points to another Bank of Canada hold next week
The BoC has consistently cited youth unemployment as one of the structural pressures it is monitoring alongside the broader inflationary environment.
Job gains in June 2026 were concentrated in wholesale and retail trade, which added 16,400 positions, and accommodation and food services, which gained 14,700, its third consecutive monthly increase.
Manufacturing was the most significant drag, shedding 17,000 jobs, bringing its total decline to approximately 61,000 positions since a January 2025 peak, according to Statistics Canada. Construction also posted losses.
Wages and what they mean for the BoC
Average hourly wages for permanent employees rose 3.3% year-over-year in June 2026, up from 3.0% in May 2026, according to Statistics Canada. The Bank of Canada tracks this metric closely as an indicator of underlying inflation pressure.
The uptick is modest but notable heading into Wednesday’s decision, given the BoC has cited wage dynamics, alongside oil prices and trade uncertainty, as a primary reason for its sustained hold.
