Is a weakening consumer enough to derail the US economy in 2026?
Broader growth signals hold steady
A separate measure of present-day economic conditions, the Coincident Economic Index, told a steadier story, climbing 0.2% in June to 114.6 after an identical 0.2% gain in May.
All four inputs that feed the CEI, payroll employment, personal income excluding transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production, contributed positively during the month. Across the first half of the year the CEI grew 0.4%, edging out the 0.3% expansion posted in the previous six-month stretch.
The Lagging Economic Index (LAG), which tracks confirmation of trends already underway, held flat at 120.5 in June following a 0.1% dip in May. Even so, its six-month trajectory turned firmly positive, rising 1.1% over the first half of 2026 after contracting 0.1% in the back half of 2025.
The report’s soft spot centered on household attitudes and housing activity: weakening consumer expectations for business conditions and a decline in building permits across most categories were the main drags on the LEI, even as financial components, led by the yield spread, provided a partial offset.
