Inflation’s retreat opens a window — but don’t expect a rate cut
Travel costs also surged. Traveller accommodation prices in Ontario and British Columbia — concentrated in World Cup host cities Toronto and Vancouver — rose approximately 20% year over year in June.
Air transportation costs, meanwhille, climbed 9.6% annually, their steepest increase since February 2023.
For mortgage brokers, the read-through is clear. Leah Zlatkin, a licensed mortgage broker and LowestRates.ca expert, told Canadian Mortgage Professional earlier this year that “there’s no clear signal that rates are heading materially lower, and in some cases we’re already seeing lenders adjust pricing upward.”
June’s data does little to alter that picture. With the next BoC decision scheduled for September 2, and the Middle East conflict unresolved, a prolonged rate freeze remains the base case — in line with RBC Economics’ June CPI forecast as energy prices pulled inflation lower.
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