CUSMA review leaves Canada in prolonged trade uncertainty
According to RBC Economics, approximately 90% of US imports from Canada have remained duty-free throughout the tariff dispute, largely owing to CUSMA’s protections. That backstop now operates, however, within a framework of annual negotiations, a structural shift with real consequences for business investment and, by extension, Canada’s housing and lending markets.
The United States has declined to renew the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), opting instead for a decade of annual reviews.https://t.co/Z8uAXvh5Ht
— Canadian Mortgage Professional Magazine (@CMPmagazine) July 3, 2026
Rules of origin are the watch item
Marie-France Benoit, Principal and Director of Market Intelligence at Avison Young Canada in Montreal, outlined the firm’s post-review assessment with precision.
“The July 1 review did not materially change the near-term outlook for North American trade. CUSMA remains in force, and Canadian goods that meet the agreement’s rules of origin continue to benefit from preferential access to the U.S. market,” she said.
“That said, the agreement has entered a new period of annual reviews and negotiations, creating a degree of policy uncertainty that could weigh on business investment and occupier decision-making. The key risk is no longer the abrupt loss of CUSMA, but the possibility of more restrictive rules of origin and increased compliance requirements over time.”
That framing has direct relevance for brokers operating in a market shaped by developers’ lending decisions and supply constraints. For new construction projects — already weighed down by elevated financing costs and tighter margins — annual reviews introduce recurring uncertainty into supply-chain costing and project timelines.
