Chevron shares look cheap – should you invest?
Oil giant Chevron (NYSE: CVX) has underperformed the broader energy sector by a significant margin, with a return of just 16% for the year. The company has greater exposure to oil prices than some peers – a $1-per-barrel drop in the price of Brent, for example, costs the company $600 million in cash flow.
Continued progress in the Middle East peace talks has had a positive impact on oil prices, however. Since the beginning of the month, the price of Brent crude has fallen by around $15 per barrel to $80, down from $95. This is good news for consumers and economies around the world, but it is bad news for oil producers. The S&P Commodity Producers Oil & Gas Exploration & Production index has fallen around 13% over the same period. The index, which was up 40% at one point this year, is now up just 19% year-to-date.
But now seems like an interesting time to buy into a business that’s no longer just about oil. Indeed, Chevron is increasingly becoming a major player in the power business.
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Chevron is branching out
Chevron is best known as an oil producer, but its most exciting business is the production of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The company does not break down exactly how much it earns from each facility and production line, but it does break down upstream (oil and gas production) and downstream (refining and trading) earnings. For 2026, UBS has pencilled in $20.4 billion of upstream and $4.3 billion of downstream earnings. Of this, analysts estimate that around 60% of upstream is liquids production, with the remainder gas and LNG.
LNG markets tend to operate differently from global oil markets. Due to the huge sums of capital investment required to set up and maintain LNG facilities, producers have to agree multi-year contracts with customers to guarantee a return. Chevron’s flagship Gorgon LNG facility in Australia, for example, cost the company and its partners $55 billion in total.
Of the roughly 4.1 million barrels of oil equivalent the company is expected to produce in 2026, 80% is tied to long-term fixed contracts, with the remaining 20% sold on the spot market. These contracts are fixed, but still influenced by market prices. LNG contracts linked to Brent prices, for example, adjust with a three- to four-month lag. Analysts at UBS reckon that for every $10 rise in the price of Brent, Chevron gets $450 million in after-tax earnings from production from its two major Australian LNG facilities.
Crunching the numbers for LNG cargoes isn’t easy for those outside the business. Prices are heavily influenced by natural-gas prices and demand. For example, prior to March, the profit on a single LNG cargo moving to Europe from the US jumped from about $25 million to $50 million as the spread between natural-gas prices in the US and prices for gas in Europe rose due to the Middle East supply shock, according to Energy Flux, an industry news site. While the world has been focused on Brent prices, it’s US natural gas that’s the important metric for Chevron. It estimates that a $1 move in price will add or subtract $700 million from its bottom line and, due to higher demand, prices have risen nearly 30% to $3.2 MMbtu since the beginning of April.
Chevron also has a smaller facility in Angola, which UBS estimates could generate a $180 million boost in Ebitda for every $2 increase in the price of the European gas benchmark, which is up around $5 per MMbtu in the past six months.
Ultimately, prices are linked to demand, and the LNG market cannot quickly adjust to demand as it can take decades to build an LNG facility. According to Shell, the world’s largest LNG trader, demand is expected to rise by 68% by 2040 in the best-case scenario and by 85% by 2050, driven by stronger requirements for electricity. The IEA believes higher demand from electric vehicles and data centres and the like will add the equivalent of two European Unions to the global need for power by 2030 – only half of which will be met by increased renewable-energy and nuclear-power generation.
Chevron’s new venture with Microsoft
Chevron has also launched a joint venture with Microsoft called Power Solutions, which will, for the first time, take it into the business of selling power. The first major deal was announced at the end of March and will see the partners develop a $7 billion, 2.5-gigawatt, natural-gas-fired power plant to support Microsoft’s data centres. It will be powered by gas from Chevron’s assets and will be built with room to double in size to meet demand.
Production should begin in 2027 and Chevron’s bottom line is set to see the benefit from 2028 onwards. The business could become a significant contributor to profits over the coming decade, but this is not reflected in the share price. Chevron wants to build power plants producing seven gigawatts over the coming years. Selling power on long-term fixed contracts to the technology “hyperscalers” will add another predictable stream to Chevron’s top and bottom lines, reducing the earnings volatility that’s dogged the firm in the past.
That should justify a higher multiple and stronger cash returns. Based on current projections, UBS’s analysts believe the shares are trading at a forward price/earnings (p/e) ratio of 16.6 for 2027, falling to 15.8 for 2028, assuming a 4% increase in production. The dividend yield is expected to come in at 4% this year and 4.2% next year. Recent declines in the share price could present a good opportunity for long-term investors.
(Image credit: NYSE)
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