Canadian commercial real estate market shifts from wait-and-see to action
It suggests the market has moved past a period of suspended decision-making and into one where fundamentals — rather than external shocks — are increasingly driving allocation choices.
Quality as the central investment thesis
The report identifies asset quality as the clearest differentiator in the current environment. High-quality, value-add premises are attracting the most attention from both occupiers and investors, while secondary assets continue to face headwinds.
Interest rate and financing conditions remain important variables. Borrowing costs have moderated from their 2023–2024 peak, and while the Bank of Canada’s rate path remains a consideration for leveraged buyers, Avison Young’s respondents suggest the focus has shifted toward asset-specific fundamentals rather than macro rate anxiety.
Mark Fieder, Principal and President of Avison Young Canada, based in Toronto, described the mood as one of growing pragmatism. “Across Canada, we’re seeing markets become more actionable and decisive,” Fieder said. “Economic and geopolitical uncertainty remain, but occupiers and investors are more willing to move forward where fundamentals are strong. The second half of 2026 is shaping up to be less about waiting for certainty and more about executing on opportunity.”
Regional divergence adds complexity
The outlook reveals meaningful variation across Canadian markets, a factor advisors with exposure to real estate investment trusts (REITs), private real estate funds, or direct property holdings will need to consider. Sentiment in Toronto, Ottawa, Calgary, and Edmonton has stabilised since the start of 2026, while Vancouver and Montréal are showing notably stronger enthusiasm.
