AST SpaceMobile vs. Rocket Lab: Which Stock Is The Superior SpaceX Competitor?
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 3.07%) made headlines when it raised $75 billion from investors in an initial public offering (nearly $86 billion if you include the investment bankers’ overallotment). The stock rocketed higher after the IPO, but it has now fallen back down to the $135 IPO price. There are alternatives to consider, such as AST SpaceMobile (ASTS 17.04%) and Rocket Lab (RKLB 11.62%). Here’s why you might want to buy one of these stocks over SpaceX.
What does SpaceX do?
The simple answer is SpaceX does a lot. For example, it builds and launches rockets. In fact, it appears well ahead of the competition in terms of technology, with rockets that return and land after use. Reusing launch rockets materially reduces launch costs. SpaceX also operates Starlink, a satellite-based telecommunication network. And it is building an artificial intelligence business.
Image source: Getty Images.
This is where things get interesting. SpaceX is a money-losing start-up, but its Starlink business is profitable. As the company clearly spelled out in its IPO prospectus, space launches and AI are burning through cash. You can avoid the money-losing businesses and just focus on the one segment of SpaceX that is profitable, the satellite-based broadband network, if you buy AST SpaceMobile.
Space Exploration Technologies
Today’s Change
(-3.07%) $-4.15
Current Price
$131.12
Key Data Points
Market Cap
Day’s Range
$130.74 – $137.76
52wk Range
$130.74 – $225.64
Volume
1.9M
Avg Vol
141M
AST SpaceMobile: Not up to speed, but getting close
AST SpaceMobile isn’t profitable yet, either. However, it operates a satellite-based broadband network. And it is working to expand that network to cover the entire planet. It is getting close to a commercial launch of its network, but there’s a vital difference between Starlink and AST SpaceMobile: Starlink’s service is bespoke, while AST SpaceMobile is partnered with large cellphone service providers.
That means it has a built-in customer base and is likely to hit the ground running when its service starts operating. It still has material spending needs as it works to broaden its geographic coverage, but it also has major telecom partners as supporters. If you are worried that Elon Musk is pulling SpaceX in too many directions, AST SpaceMobile would be a way to focus on the one part of that company that actually makes money today. That said, AST SpaceMobile likely won’t be profitable for a while longer, given the huge cost of building and launching satellites.
Today’s Change
(-17.04%) $-11.30
Current Price
$55.01
Key Data Points
Market Cap
Day’s Range
$53.33 – $61.50
52wk Range
$36.08 – $133.86
Volume
53.1M
Avg Vol
22.3M
Gross Margin
-22429.27%
Rocket Lab: Everything but the AI
One sizable drawback with AST SpaceMobile is that it doesn’t launch its own satellites. It has to contract that out to other companies, which means, in some ways, it is at the mercy of its space-focused competitors. Rocket Lab currently builds and launches rockets and makes other space technology. However, it has agreed to buy Iridium Communications (IRDM 4.23%), which operates a space-based broadband network, in an $8 billion deal.
That will, effectively, make Rocket Lab a fully integrated space company, just like SpaceX. But it will leave out the AI part of the business, which is currently eating up huge amounts of SpaceX cash. It isn’t that Rocket Lab doesn’t use AI; it does. But it uses AI internally to support its own business.
Today’s Change
(-11.62%) $-8.86
Current Price
$67.35
Key Data Points
Market Cap
Day’s Range
$66.01 – $73.95
52wk Range
$37.57 – $151.00
Volume
1.1M
Avg Vol
27.2M
Gross Margin
33.77%
Rocket Lab isn’t profitable either, so it, too, is still a money-losing start-up. As with SpaceX and AST SpaceMobile, only the most aggressive investors should consider it. However, it lets you focus on space and avoid getting caught up in the AI hype running through the stock market today.
What are you looking to own?
When you step back and look at SpaceX, AST SpaceMobile, and Rocket Lab, there are a few big takeaways. First, the only way to get direct access to Elon Musk is to buy SpaceX. If that’s what has you interested in space, then stick with the “original.”
Second, you can focus on the one part of SpaceX that’s profitable if you buy AST SpaceMobile. AST SpaceMobile isn’t profitable, as it is still building out its satellite business, but it has major partners to help it along.
Third, if you want everything but SpaceX’s AI business, your best option is Rocket Lab. The caveat here is that it still hasn’t completed the purchase of Iridium. If you choose to go this route, you might want to hold off until the deal is consummated.
One final consideration here: All three companies are still money-losing start-ups. Only the most aggressive growth investors should probably consider buying any of them. The space sector is still very early in its development, and it is far from clear which companies will be the long-term winners.
