Mortgage Rates Today, Wednesday, July 15: A Little Lower
Mortgage interest rates are lower today, after yesterday’s better-than-expected Consumer Price Index report showed that inflation fell in June.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage ticked down to 6.45% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is eight basis points lower than yesterday but one basis point higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Falling inflation is good for mortgage borrowers because it makes the Fed less likely to raise overnight borrowing rates — which makes mortgage lenders less likely to hike their own rates.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
🤓 Kate on Rates: July 9, 2026
📈 What influences mortgage rates?
This week, the Nerds are paying attention to the June Consumer Price Index, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics released yesterday. Inflation showed signs of recovering from initial oil price shocks, just as a renewed U.S. blockade is sending prices back up.
“We’re looking at June data and July has already brought much change,” says Elizabeth Renter, NerdWallet senior economist. “In June, a cease fire and ultimate resolution to the conflict in Iran seemed likely. This month, not so much. It’s important to keep the lag of this data in mind when deciphering what it means for the economy and the Fed.”
Although traders don’t expect central bankers to raise rates this month, there are three subsequent Fed meetings through the end of the year. Markets think the chances of central bankers raising rates go up with each meeting.
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.95% or higher.
🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.
🔒 Should I lock my rate?
Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.
🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:
Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.
