June CPI cools sharply, but the path to a rate cut stays rocky
“Even shelter, long the most stubborn component, cooled to a 0.1% gain, its smallest since January 2021.”
The probability of a July rate hike collapsed from 42% to 17% in a single session, per CME FedWatch data, though traders still place roughly 60% odds on a hike by September.
Minutes from the June 16–17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, released Wednesday, show policymakers split between scenarios that would call for rate hikes and those that would allow for cuts.https://t.co/Ds9u9XiGMK
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) July 10, 2026
The Middle East factor
The ceasefire that helped push oil roughly 25% lower in June broke down last week after fresh US-Iran strikes, with crude rising Monday and again Tuesday. Energy shocks have been the dominant inflationary variable throughout 2026.
For brokers advising rate-sensitive clients, Williamson offered a measured read on where the housing market stands.
“For home buyers, the key takeaway is less about relief on the horizon and more about the absence of a new setback,” he said.
