Gold market braces for volatile second half as rates and geopolitics collide
The council’s baseline scenario has the Federal Reserve delivering at least one rate cut before year end, likely in October, alongside parallel easing from the Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and European Central Bank.
US inflation is expected to have peaked near 3.9% in the second quarter. If those conditions play out, the council’s models suggest gold should trade within 5% of roughly $4,100/oz through the end of 2026.
Price scenarios
Upside momentum for gold would most likely require a clear signal that the global economy is slowing sharply, a scenario the council said could push prices above $4,500/oz. Shifting rate expectations or a worsening geopolitical backdrop could also reignite gains.
On the downside, the biggest threats are a stronger dollar, rate hikes that exceed current expectations, and a broader shift toward risk appetite among investors.
The council warned that a sustained slide below $4,000/oz could accelerate further selling, though it also pointed to history as a reassuring signal: any drop exceeding 10% from current levels has typically drawn in long-term buyers across multiple regions.
