Fed Minutes, Q2 Earnings Kickoff and a Split FOMC – Everything That Matters on Wall Street This Week

Nri Wealth

There are weeks on Wall Street when the tape is directionless and the biggest move comes from a single off-script comment from a minor official. And then there are weeks like this one, where the calendar is stacked and every major driver – monetary policy, corporate earnings, and economic momentum – is on the docket simultaneously. The week of July 7 is firmly in the second category.

Markets arrive at this juncture having largely shrugged off a weaker-than-expected June jobs report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average notched a record close of 52,900 last Thursday despite nonfarm payrolls coming in below forecast, while the S&P 500 settled at 7,483 and the Nasdaq dipped 0.8% as semiconductor stocks faced renewed pressure. The divergence between a blue-chip Dow at record levels and a Nasdaq struggling with AI trade jitters captures the tension that defines this market heading into the second half of the year.

The Fed Minutes: What Warsh’s First Meeting Really Said

The centrepiece of the week is Wednesday’s release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June 17 meeting – the first chaired by new Fed chief Kevin Warsh. That gathering held rates steady at 3.5-3.75% as expected, but the detail in the committee’s deliberations was far more revealing than the headline decision.

Nine of the Fed’s 18 officials penciled in at least one rate hike for 2026, while Warsh himself abstained from the dot plot entirely – an unusual move that left markets guessing about where the new chairman personally stands. The minutes will provide the most granular read available on how the committee is weighing elevated inflation “partly reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy” against a labour market that has been more resilient than feared.

Prices are too high. We are all in the price stability business – that might not be our only business, but it was the common thread I heard. There is open-mindedness on AI and productivity, but we have all looked around and seen that prices are too high.

– Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve Chair, ECB Forum, Sintra, July 1, 2026

The Fed’s latest projections estimate PCE inflation at 3.6% for 2026, against the 2% target, with new Chair Warsh making clear at the June press conference that bringing inflation down is the committee’s primary focus for the remainder of the year. The minutes are unlikely to shift that headline picture – but investors will be scrutinising the tone, the dissents, and any language around what would actually trigger a rate move in either direction at the July 28-29 meeting.

Q2 Earnings: The Bull Market’s Next Test

Running in parallel with the Fed drama is the unofficial start of Q2 earnings season, which has the potential to be genuinely extraordinary – if the numbers match the forecasts.

FactSet’s current consensus estimate puts S&P 500 earnings growth at 23.1% year-on-year for Q2 2026, with Goldman Sachs strategists projecting 22% EPS growth. These figures would mark the second consecutive quarter of strong earnings expansion, with FactSet estimating full-year 2026 growth of 24% – the foundation on which Goldman Sachs raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000 from 7,600 in May.