Rate surge pushes pending home sales to a three-month low
Rates remain under pressure from persistent inflation and volatile oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The weekly average 30-year fixed rate stood at 6.58% for the week ending July 23, the highest in 11 months, according to Freddie Mac‘s Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
Regional data reveals sharp divergence
Metro-level data from Redfin reveals a market split sharply along geographic lines. Pending home sales posting their steepest monthly drop of 2026 masked wide variation: West Palm Beach, FL, led gains at 15.4% year-over-year, while Houston and Seattle posted the sharpest declines at -15.4% and -13.9% respectively.
On the new listings side, Fort Worth, TX, fell 12.3% and Dallas -11.4%, while St. Louis gained 13.5%.
| Metro | Year-over-year change | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| West Palm Beach, FL | +15.4% | ▲ |
| Boston, MA | +9.4% | ▲ |
| Pittsburgh, PA | +8.5% | ▲ |
| Cincinnati, OH | +8.2% | ▲ |
| Sacramento, CA | +5.9% | ▲ |
| San Diego, CA | -7.1% | ▼ |
| Denver, CO | -7.7% | ▼ |
| Phoenix, AZ | -12.5% | ▼ |
| Seattle, WA | -13.9% | ▼ |
| Houston, TX | -15.4% | ▼ |
Sellers outnumber buyers, but buyers are gaining leverage
Despite the demand pullback, supply conditions are tilting in buyers’ favor. Active listings nationally reached 1,490,916 for the period, up 0.7% year-over-year per Redfin, while the median monthly mortgage payment eased to $2,575, its lowest level in three months, as sellers’ median asking prices fell to their lowest point in a year.
Months of supply held at 3.6, still below the 4-to-5-month range considered a balanced market, but the gap between sellers and active buyers is widening.
