XTB Shares Jump 8.6% to Record as Q2 Profit Beats Analyst Forecast
Shares in Warsaw-listed XTB jumped almost 9% yesterday (Thursday) after the online broker’s preliminary first-half figures showed that earnings remained close to the record level reached in the first quarter, even as client trading volumes declined.
The stock closed 8.6% higher at PLN 147.68, setting a new all-time closing high. It traded at PLN 75.00 a year earlier, meaning the share price has gained almost 97% over 12 months. After including the PLN 4.07 dividend paid this year, the total return over the period exceeded 100%.
The market reaction followed XTB’s report of PLN 492.2 million in second-quarter net profit. That was only 8% below the record PLN 535 million generated in Q1, although CFD volume measured in lots fell 21.2% quarter-over-quarter.
Operating revenue decreased 9.3% from the previous quarter to PLN 992.6 million. However, profitability per CFD lot increased to PLN 484 from PLN 439, cushioning the impact of weaker trading activity.
Q2 Profit Beats Analyst Forecast by 22%
The quarterly result was also substantially higher than one of the latest publicly available estimates.
Earlier this month, FinanceMagnates.com reported that Noble Securities analyst Mateusz Chrzanowski expected XTB to generate about PLN 403 million in Q2 net profit. The preliminary figure exceeded that forecast by PLN 89.2 million, or 22.1%.
It reverses the pattern from the previous three quarters, when the analyst’s profit estimates all exceeded XTB’s reported numbers. The largest miss came in Q3 2025, when the PLN 190 million forecast was 257% above the official result. The gaps narrowed to 13.6% in Q4 2025 and 21.5% in Q1 2026.
The client forecast was much closer. Chrzanowski expected XTB to add between 320,000 and 330,000 clients during Q2. Based on the company’s reported H1 total of 703,333 and the 370,041 clients added in Q1, the second-quarter figure was approximately 333,300, only about 1% above the upper end of his range.
The analyst also raised his full-year 2026 net profit forecast by 50% to PLN 1.5 billion. XTB has now generated approximately PLN 1.03 billion during the first half, equivalent to more than two-thirds of that projection. Reaching the estimate would require about PLN 473 million in combined profit during the final two quarters.
What Investors Found in the Report
A share-price move cannot be attributed to a single figure with certainty, but the report contained several numbers that help explain the positive response.
XTB maintained high unit profitability despite a sharp decline in volume, kept Q2 earnings close to the record first-quarter level and continued to add more than 330,000 clients during the quarter. Across H1, operating revenue rose 79.7% to PLN 2.09 billion and net profit increased 150.5% to PLN 1.03 billion.
The result also contrasts with the weaker configuration seen last year. FinanceMagnates.com previously reported that XTB’s 2025 net profit fell despite a 41% increase in CFD lot volume, as profitability per lot declined and costs rose. The latest quarter produced the reverse combination: less volume but more revenue generated from each lot.
The wider retail market slowed as well. FM Intelligence estimated that aggregate monthly volume across 21 tracked brokers fell 9.3% in Q2. XTB’s decline in nominal CFD volume was steeper, making the resilience of its profit more significant for the reported period.
Commodities Still Drive Earnings, but the Mix Broadens
The headline figures do not fully explain how earnings held up while activity declined. The composition of XTB’s trading result changed substantially between the first and second quarters.
A new FM Intelligence analysis found that commodity CFDs generated 60.5% of XTB’s gross result from financial instruments in Q2, down 28 percentage points from 88.5% in Q1. Index CFDs moved in the opposite direction, rising from 2.1% to 27.1%.
FM Intelligence calculations indicate that the increase in the index-CFD result replaced approximately 64% of the quarter-over-quarter decline in the commodity result. The shift reduced XTB’s dependence on a single asset class, although commodities still accounted for more than three-fifths of the Q2 result and 75.3% across the first half.
The first-quarter concentration was unusually high. An earlier FM Intelligence review showed that gold made the largest instrument-level contribution in Q1, followed by silver and cocoa. The second-quarter increase in the contribution from US index instruments created a broader earnings mix.
Separately, XTB continues to expand its commodity business. In an offering update effective from July, XTB Institutional added five commodity instruments and extended Friday trading until 23:00 CEST/CET. The changes came after the reporting period and therefore did not contribute to the Q2 figures, but they show the continuing importance of commodities to the group’s institutional offering.
Investment Products Bring Clients, CFDs Generate Earnings
XTB’s record first half also highlighted a continuing divide between the products that attract customers and those responsible for most of its trading income.
Shares, exchange -traded funds and Investment Plans accounted for 82.9% of first transactions by new European Union clients during H1. However, CFDs generated PLN 1.98 billion, or about 96%, of XTB’s PLN 2.07 billion gross result from financial instruments.
Turnover in shares and ETFs more than doubled to $18.44 billion, while the group acquired more than 703,000 clients during the six months and recorded almost 1.49 million active clients.
For investors, the preliminary report therefore offered two supportive signals at once: customer growth and activity in investment products continued, while the CFD business maintained high profitability despite lower volume and a less concentrated asset mix.
That combination appears to have outweighed the sequential decline in Q2 revenue and profit, pushing the stock to a record and bringing its 12-month price gain to almost 100%.
Shares in Warsaw-listed XTB jumped almost 9% yesterday (Thursday) after the online broker’s preliminary first-half figures showed that earnings remained close to the record level reached in the first quarter, even as client trading volumes declined.
The stock closed 8.6% higher at PLN 147.68, setting a new all-time closing high. It traded at PLN 75.00 a year earlier, meaning the share price has gained almost 97% over 12 months. After including the PLN 4.07 dividend paid this year, the total return over the period exceeded 100%.
The market reaction followed XTB’s report of PLN 492.2 million in second-quarter net profit. That was only 8% below the record PLN 535 million generated in Q1, although CFD volume measured in lots fell 21.2% quarter-over-quarter.
Operating revenue decreased 9.3% from the previous quarter to PLN 992.6 million. However, profitability per CFD lot increased to PLN 484 from PLN 439, cushioning the impact of weaker trading activity.
Q2 Profit Beats Analyst Forecast by 22%
The quarterly result was also substantially higher than one of the latest publicly available estimates.
Earlier this month, FinanceMagnates.com reported that Noble Securities analyst Mateusz Chrzanowski expected XTB to generate about PLN 403 million in Q2 net profit. The preliminary figure exceeded that forecast by PLN 89.2 million, or 22.1%.
It reverses the pattern from the previous three quarters, when the analyst’s profit estimates all exceeded XTB’s reported numbers. The largest miss came in Q3 2025, when the PLN 190 million forecast was 257% above the official result. The gaps narrowed to 13.6% in Q4 2025 and 21.5% in Q1 2026.
The client forecast was much closer. Chrzanowski expected XTB to add between 320,000 and 330,000 clients during Q2. Based on the company’s reported H1 total of 703,333 and the 370,041 clients added in Q1, the second-quarter figure was approximately 333,300, only about 1% above the upper end of his range.
The analyst also raised his full-year 2026 net profit forecast by 50% to PLN 1.5 billion. XTB has now generated approximately PLN 1.03 billion during the first half, equivalent to more than two-thirds of that projection. Reaching the estimate would require about PLN 473 million in combined profit during the final two quarters.
What Investors Found in the Report
A share-price move cannot be attributed to a single figure with certainty, but the report contained several numbers that help explain the positive response.
XTB maintained high unit profitability despite a sharp decline in volume, kept Q2 earnings close to the record first-quarter level and continued to add more than 330,000 clients during the quarter. Across H1, operating revenue rose 79.7% to PLN 2.09 billion and net profit increased 150.5% to PLN 1.03 billion.
The result also contrasts with the weaker configuration seen last year. FinanceMagnates.com previously reported that XTB’s 2025 net profit fell despite a 41% increase in CFD lot volume, as profitability per lot declined and costs rose. The latest quarter produced the reverse combination: less volume but more revenue generated from each lot.
The wider retail market slowed as well. FM Intelligence estimated that aggregate monthly volume across 21 tracked brokers fell 9.3% in Q2. XTB’s decline in nominal CFD volume was steeper, making the resilience of its profit more significant for the reported period.
Commodities Still Drive Earnings, but the Mix Broadens
The headline figures do not fully explain how earnings held up while activity declined. The composition of XTB’s trading result changed substantially between the first and second quarters.
A new FM Intelligence analysis found that commodity CFDs generated 60.5% of XTB’s gross result from financial instruments in Q2, down 28 percentage points from 88.5% in Q1. Index CFDs moved in the opposite direction, rising from 2.1% to 27.1%.
FM Intelligence calculations indicate that the increase in the index-CFD result replaced approximately 64% of the quarter-over-quarter decline in the commodity result. The shift reduced XTB’s dependence on a single asset class, although commodities still accounted for more than three-fifths of the Q2 result and 75.3% across the first half.
The first-quarter concentration was unusually high. An earlier FM Intelligence review showed that gold made the largest instrument-level contribution in Q1, followed by silver and cocoa. The second-quarter increase in the contribution from US index instruments created a broader earnings mix.
Separately, XTB continues to expand its commodity business. In an offering update effective from July, XTB Institutional added five commodity instruments and extended Friday trading until 23:00 CEST/CET. The changes came after the reporting period and therefore did not contribute to the Q2 figures, but they show the continuing importance of commodities to the group’s institutional offering.
Investment Products Bring Clients, CFDs Generate Earnings
XTB’s record first half also highlighted a continuing divide between the products that attract customers and those responsible for most of its trading income.
Shares, exchange -traded funds and Investment Plans accounted for 82.9% of first transactions by new European Union clients during H1. However, CFDs generated PLN 1.98 billion, or about 96%, of XTB’s PLN 2.07 billion gross result from financial instruments.
Turnover in shares and ETFs more than doubled to $18.44 billion, while the group acquired more than 703,000 clients during the six months and recorded almost 1.49 million active clients.
For investors, the preliminary report therefore offered two supportive signals at once: customer growth and activity in investment products continued, while the CFD business maintained high profitability despite lower volume and a less concentrated asset mix.
That combination appears to have outweighed the sequential decline in Q2 revenue and profit, pushing the stock to a record and bringing its 12-month price gain to almost 100%.
