Adani Ports shares shed 3% after Q1 results. Here’s why Nomura and other brokerages see up to 24% upside
The company’s revenue from operations rose 18.5% year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 10,821 crore from Rs 9,126 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year, Adani Ports said in a regulatory filing.
For the quarter under review, Adani Ports reported EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) of Rs 6,540 crore, up 19% YoY from Rs 5,495 crore in the year-ago period. The EBITDA margin stood at 60.4%, marginally higher than 60.2% in the corresponding quarter last year.
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Should you buy, sell or hold Adani Ports shares?
Nomura has maintained its Buy rating on Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) with a target price of Rs 2,080, implying an upside potential of around 21% from current levels. The brokerage said the company’s strong ports business more than offset the subdued performance of its logistics segment during the June quarter. Nomura also noted that APSEZ’s pan-India container market share declined by 40 basis points sequentially due to a one-off shift in transshipment traffic to rival ports amid the Middle East crisis, but expects the company to regain market share as the situation normalises.
Nuvama has reiterated its Buy rating on Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) while raising its target price to Rs 2,000 (16.2% upside) from Rs 1,920. The brokerage said domestic ports revenue rose 12% year-on-year to Rs 6,660 crore, driven primarily by a 10% increase in realisations to Rs 604 per tonne, even as cargo volumes grew a modest 2% to 115 million tonnes, slightly below its estimates.
Management highlighted market share gains across east coast ports and expects volumes at Mundra to recover as these disruptions ease. Nuvama has broadly maintained its FY27 and FY28 EBITDA estimates and values the stock at 16x June 2028 EV/EBITDA. It also noted that the company remains disciplined on acquisitions, evaluating overseas assets only if they are earnings-accretive from day one, financed in local currency, generate long-term return on capital employed at or above APSEZ’s levels, and strengthen its integrated port and logistics ecosystem.
Read more: Adani Group raises Rs 43,500 crore, now plans another $3-4 billion in 6 months
Motilal Oswal has reiterated its Buy rating on Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) with a target price of Rs 2,130, implying an upside potential of around 24%. The brokerage said APSEZ remains well placed for future expansion, backed by strong cash flows, a healthy cash balance of Rs 12,400 crore, and a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.9x.
It expects capacity additions at key ports, ongoing infrastructure projects, and global port acquisitions to support sustainable growth in FY27 and beyond. Motilal Oswal has largely retained its FY27 and FY28 estimates and expects cargo volumes to grow at an 11% CAGR over FY26–28, driving revenue, EBITDA, and PAT CAGRs of 17%, 18%, and 21%, respectively, over the same period. The brokerage values the stock at 17x FY28E EV/EBITDA.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
