How Much Will Your Social Security Check Increase in 2027? Early Numbers Offer Clues.

If you’re on Social Security, there’s probably a big question on your mind: What will your 2027 cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, amount to? And will it be more generous than this year’s somewhat meager 2.8% COLA?

We won’t know what next year’s COLA looks like until October. But early inflation numbers offer a clue as to what to expect in the new year.

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What the numbers say so far

Social Security COLAs are based on inflation changes during the third quarter of the year. But analysts can use early inflation data to try to narrow down COLAs ahead of time.

Based on inflation readings so far, the Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group, says next year’s Social Security COLA could be 3.8 %. If we apply a raise that size to the average retirement benefit today, which is about $2,084, it means the typical retiree on Social Security could see their monthly checks rise by roughly $79 in the new year.

But that doesn’t tell the whole story. First, that 3.8% COLA is not guaranteed to come through. And if inflation slows down in the coming months, seniors could see a smaller increase to their benefits in the new year.

Secondly, seniors enrolled in Social Security and Medicare at the same time pay their Part B premiums directly from their benefits. If the cost of Medicare Part B increases substantially in 2027, like it did this year, it could eat away at a big chunk of next year’s Social Security raise, leaving the typical senior with a smaller increase than $79.

Don’t make any financial plans just yet

Because an official COLA can’t be released until October and we don’t know what Medicare costs will look like in the new year, it’s too soon to start formulating a budget based on these numbers. You can use that $79 figure as a starting point with the understanding that it’s subject to change.

Also, if your monthly benefit is a lot higher or lower than the typical retirement benefit today, you might see a much different boost in the new year, even if that 3.8% COLA projection ends up being accurate. So rather than bank on a specific number, take a look at your own benefit and run different scenarios to see what your raise might look like.

More importantly, if you’re struggling financially, don’t just rely on a big COLA in 2027 to boost your income. Find ways to give yourself a raise outside Social Security, such as by taking on a part-time job or joining the gig economy.