Stocks Stabilize as Oil Prices Fall Back, But Caution Prevails
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.11%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.08%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.15%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are up +0.06%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are down -0.08%.
Stock indexes are stabilizing today after yesterday’s sharp sell-off. Stocks are seeing support as oil prices fell back. Software stocks are trading higher, but chip stocks are trading lower despite a blockbuster revenue forecast from Intel tied to data center demand. Bearish sentiment lingers as President Trump announced a new round of tariffs that could prove inflationary. Also, the market is braced for a possible expansion of US military attacks on Iran, which Mr. Trump said he is considering.
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President Trump late Thursday announced broad tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on 60 nations, replacing the 10% global import tax that expired. The new tariffs are based on trade authority under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 tied to forced labor in supply chains. Mr. Trump had to seek new trade authority after the Supreme Court struck down his so-called reciprocal tariffs in February. Mr. Trump replaced the reciprocal tariffs with a 10% global import tax that expired this week.
The new forced-labor tariffs exclude some key items such as fuel, foods, fertilizer, and products covered by the North American trade agreement with Mexico and Canada. The new forced labor tariffs also exclude automobiles, metals, and drugs, which are covered by tariffs tied to a different trade authority. The Trump administration has a raft of other Section 301 investigations underway that could be used to impose more tariffs in the future, stacked on top of today’s forced-labor tariff.
Sep WTI crude oil prices (CLU26) are down more than -2% today, reversing part of Thursday’s +6.17% rally. Meanwhile, Sep Brent crude oil prices (CBU26) fell back to the $ 97-per-barrel area after hitting a 2-month high of $102 on Thursday. Oil prices fell today as oil tankers continued to move through the Red Sea despite Houthi threats.
WTI oil prices soared by more than +6% on Thursday after the Iran-backed Houthis launched a missile and drone attack on two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea, expanding the oil disruptions beyond the Strait of Hormuz and threatening oil shipments in the Red Sea. President Trump responded by saying on Thursday that he holds Iran responsible for the Houthi attacks and telling Axios in an interview that he is considering a “massive attack” that would be “bigger than ever before” and is “close to making a decision on it.”
The Houthis have vowed to blockade shipping linked to Saudi Arabia and warned shipowners against calling at the nation’s ports. The move threatens Saudi oil exports from Yanbu, a Red Sea hub that the Saudi’s are using to ship crude since the war brought shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to a near halt.
The outlook for strong Q2 earnings, which began in earnest this week, is a bullish factor for stocks. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by +23%, close to Q1’s blowout earnings of +30%, which was more than double the +12% analysts had expected. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500’s earnings-per-share growth in Q2. So far, earnings results have been positive, with 89% of S&P 500 companies that reported Q2 earnings beating estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The markets are discounting a 35% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29.
Overseas stock markets today are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.77%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed down -1.61% on Friday. Japan’s Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed down -2.73%.
Interest Rates
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) are up +6 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -1.2 bp at $4.681, falling back from a new 1.5-year high of 4.712% posted early in the session. The 10-year T-note yield this week has risen sharply by a net +13 bp on inflation concerns tied to the surge in oil prices and President Trump’s new round of tariffs. Yet, the T-note yield fell back as the 10-year inflation expectations rate fell by -3.8 bp to 2.260%, tied in part to the idea that the surge in oil prices and the new tariffs will dampen US economic growth and possibly cause the Fed to be less hawkish.
European government bond yields are trading lower. The 10-year German bund yield is down -1.8 bp at 3.185%, falling back from Thursday’s 15-year high of 3.128%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -4.7 bp to 5.055%, falling back from Thursday’s 2-month high of 5.122%.
The ECB at its policy meeting on Thursday left its key deposit rate unchanged at 2.25%, in line with market expectations. The ECB said it left rates unchanged, awaiting further data to determine whether additional rate hikes are necessary to address the inflation outlook. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde said, “Risks to the inflation outlook are to the upside.” The markets are discounting a 90% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on September 10.
US Stock Movers
The Magnificent 7 are mixed today, stabilizing after yesterday’s sell-off. Alphabet (GOOGL) is up +0.6% after plunging -7% on Thursday. Tesla (TSLA) is down -0.7%, adding to yesterday’s -14% plunge. Apple (AAPL) is up more than +1% today.
The chip sector is trading lower today despite Intel’s (INTC) blockbuster revenue forecast. Intel is forecasting Q3 revenue of $15.8-16.8 billion, well above the analyst consensus of $15.1 billion, with an expected +59% q/q surge in data center sales. Intel (INTC) is down more than -3% despite the revenue forecast. Elsewhere in the chip sector, Marvell Technology (MRVL) and Micron Technology (MU) are down more than -3%.
Software stocks are showing strength today, rebounding higher after Thursday’s losses. ServiceNow (NOW) is up more than +4%. Atlassian (TEAM) and Intuit (INTU) are up more than +2%.
Oracle (ORCL) is down -1.7% despite its favorable announcement of a 10-year contract with the US Department of Defense, valued at more than $3 billion for the first five years and possibly as much as $7 billion over 10 years.
Charter Communications (CHTR) is down more than -1% after reporting an earnings miss.
Newmont Corp (NEM) is down -0.4% despite reporting favorable Q2 earnings and maintaining its full-year production guidance.
Earnings Reports(7/24/2026)
Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Co (BAH), Liberty Global Ltd (LBTYA), Verizon Communications Inc (VZ), First Hawaiian Inc (FHB), HCA Healthcare Inc (HCA), Gentex Corp (GNTX), American Express Co (AXP), Ensign Group Inc/The (ENSG), Charter Communications Inc (CHTR), SLB Ltd (SLB), NextEra Energy Inc (NEE), Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (LW).
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