Chartstopper: July 17, 2026 | Nasdaq
This Week
Inflation and the artificial intelligence (AI) trade were the two major themes for this week – and both saw mixed news for markets.
Inflation
On the plus side, the June consumer and producer price reports were (much) softer than expected, largely due to lower gas prices. Headline CPI saw its first monthly decline since 2020, while producer prices saw its biggest drop in more than a year. Importantly, it wasn’t just lower gas prices weighing on CPI – core goods prices fell (again) and core services prices were flat. So, headline CPI slowed to 3.5% year-over-year (YOY) from 4.2% and core eased to 2.6% YOY from 2.9%.
But energy prices are back on the rise in July, with U.S. oil prices up about $10 this week to move above $80 per barrel. That’s because disagreement over control of the Strait of Hormuz led to renewed attacks between the U.S. and Iran, causing a drop in traffic through the strait.
And even after the softer inflation data, Dallas Fed President Logan still called for “modestly higher rates” to get inflation back to its 2% target.
AI Trade
On the plus side, two linchpins in the AI supply chain reported strong earnings this week – TSMC and ASML. TSMC posted its fifth-straight quarter of record earnings and announced a $100 billion investment in U.S. manufacturing capacity amid continued demand for AI chips. Meanwhile, ASML beat earnings estimates and raised its full-year sales guidance (again) amid “extremely strong” demand.
And yet, news that China’s Kimi K3 model nears the performance of frontier U.S. models (while costing about 40% less) added to concerns about how much is being spent to build U.S. AI.
So, for the week, the Nasdaq-100® is down 4%, while 10-year Treasury yields are flat around 4.55%.
Next Week
Here are the top events I’m watching next week:
- Wednesday: GOOG & TSLA Earnings (Q2)
- Thursday: INTC & SKHY Earnings (Q2), Jobless Claims (week ending July 18)
- Friday: U.S. Manufacturing and Services PMIs (July Preliminary)
