Reliance Q1 Results Preview: Strong Or Weak, How Mukesh Ambani’s RIL Q1 Will Be Like? O2C, Retail, Jio In Focus

“Reliance would benefit from JIO’s increased ARPU and subscriber additions while the retail segment EBITDA margins to grow, O2C reporting could be stable on QoQ basis on increased volatility,” said analysts at Yes Securities in a note.

They are forecasting Jio’s ARPU to increase to Rs 215.4 per user, while the subscriber base could reach to 531.6 million. Also, Reliance Retail is predicted to report 16% YoY growth in revenue, however, sequential performance will be mildly lower to Rs 997 billion. While retail business is expected to report EBITDA margins of 7.3%.

On the other hand, these analysts believe refining throughput could decline 7.2% YoY and 2.3% QoQ to 16.8mmt while GRM expected at $10 per barrel.

On the other hand, Emkay Global Research predicts O2C EBITDA up 2% QoQ to Rs 148 billion, Upstream EBITDA down 5% qoq to Rs39.6 billion; Retail EBITDA up 1% qoq at Rs 69.9 billion; Jio ARPU to rise 1% qoq and subscribers are expected to grow by 9.5 million in Q1FY27.

“RIL is expected to post a strong quarter, with EBITDA up ~11% qoq (+15% yoy). Growth is led by improving O2C profitability, low-double-digit growth in Retail, and continued momentum in Jio through ARPU gains and subscriber additions,” analysts at Equirus Securities added.

Meanwhile, on the consolidated front, analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities said, “We expect RIL’s consolidated EBITDA to rise by 8.4% yoy (up 5.4% qoq). We expect segment EBITDA to rise 12.1% yoy for O2C and 5.6% for retail, with oil and gas segment EBITDA likely to decline 11.3% yoy.”

On O2C business, which is the biggest contributor to Reliance’s earnings, analysts added, “O2C will likely benefits from strong SEZ refinery earnings (no windfall tax impact), US ethane based petchem, and weak INR. We expect relatively muted retail business with 12% yoy revenue growth, and weak oil & gas business on declining production.”

In case of operating profit, Kotak’s analysts said, “We expect consolidated EBITDA for 1) Retail to be up 5.6% yoy (down 2.6% qoq) 2) O2C to be up 12.1% yoy (+12.0% qoq) and 3) E&P to decline ~11.3% yoy (up 5.7% qoq).”

On the standalone front, EBITDA to be up 13.8% yoy and 25.3%
qoq.

Reliance Industries Share Price

Ahead of Q1, Reliance’s stock price traded at Rs 1319.20 apiece on BSE, registering an upside of 2.03%. The company’s market cap stood at Rs 17,85,212.51 crore.

Reliance traded near its intraday high of Rs 1,323.80 apiece and emerged among top bullish stocks of the day, lifting broad-based Sensex and Nifty eventually.

Experts advises investors to focus on Reliance’s O2C Margin, retail revenue growth, ARPU & Subscriber base growth, Price hikes in telecom, and Capex updates.

During the financial year 2025-26, the giant’s net profit and Share of Profit/(Loss) of Associates & JVs increased by 17.8% Y-o-Y to Rs 95,754 crore ($ 10.1 billion). While Reliance reported a consolidated EBITDA of Rs 207,911 crore for FY26, registering a growth of 13.4% YoY. Further, for full-year, Reliance posted a gross revenue of Rs 1,175,919 crore ($ 124.0 billion), which increased by 9.8% YoY.

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